| 郑玉萍,宫恒瑞,苗运玲,王毅,崔玉玲,蒲洁.新疆天山北坡经济带持续低温指数变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2022,16(5):8~14 |
| 新疆天山北坡经济带持续低温指数变化特征 |
| The CCDI change characteristics of the Northern slope economic belt of Xinjiang Tianshan Mountains In the background of the global climate warming |
| 投稿时间：2021-11-13 修订日期：2022-03-20 |
| DOI：10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2022.05.002 |
| 中文关键词: 天山北坡经济带 持续低温指数(CCDI) 变化特征 |
| 英文关键词: |
| 基金项目:中亚大气科学研究基金项目CAAS202018 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：利用新疆天山北坡经济带12个国家气象站逐日最低气温和平均气温资料，研究该区域近55 a来持续低温指数CCDI的变化规律及其对气温变化的响应，结果表明：近55 a来研究区的年、季平均气温均呈显著升高趋势，其中冬季升温幅度最大，夏季升温幅度最小；受气候变暖的影响，近55 a研究区CCDI呈显著减少趋势，其中冬季减少幅度最大、夏季最小；55 a来研究区CCDI和平均气温之间呈显著的反相关，年、季都经历了气温距平由负转正、同时对应CCDI距平由正转负的过程；近55 a来年、季CCDI对平均气温的敏感系数均为负值，说明CCDI值随着气温的升高而减少，敏感系数绝对值春、夏、秋三季均呈显著减小趋势，即CCDI对气候变暖的响应在减弱，而冬季则呈显著增大趋势即CCDI对气候变暖的响应在增强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: The daily minimum temperature and average temperature data from 12 national meteorological stations in the economic belt on the Northern Slope of The Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang were used to study the variation rule of the Consecutive cold day index (CCDI) and its response to temperature change in the past 55 years. The results show that the annual and seasonal mean temperatures in the study area have increased significantly during the past 55 years, and the largest warming range in winter and the smallest warming range in summer. Under the influence of climate warming, CCDI decreased significantly in the past 55 years, with the largest decrease in winter and the smallest in summer. There is a significant inverse correlation between CCDI and mean temperature in the study area during the past 55 years, The annual and seasonal temperature anomalies both changed from negative to positive, and the corresponding CCDI anomalies changed from positive to negative. The sensitivity coefficients of annual and seasonal CCDI to mean temperature were negative in the past 55 years, indicating that CCDI decreases with the increase of temperature. The absolute value of sensitivity coefficients show a significant decreasing trend in spring, summer and autumn. In other words, the response of CCDI to climate warming is weakening. And the CCDI increased significantly in winter, indicating that the response of CCDI to climate warming was increasing. |
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