| 阿帕尔·肉孜,阿吉古丽.沙依提,叶尔克江·霍依哈孜,黄秋霞.基于SPI的1961－2020年昌吉地区作物生长季气象干旱时空特征研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2024,18(2):163~168 |
| 基于SPI的1961－2020年昌吉地区作物生长季气象干旱时空特征研究 |
| Study on temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought in crop growing season in Changji region from 1961 to 2020 based on SPI |
| 投稿时间：2022-01-12 修订日期：2022-07-05 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 昌吉地区 生长季 干旱 标准化降水指数（SPI） 干旱强度 干旱站次比 |
| 英文关键词:Changji area crop growth season drought standardized precipitation index(SPI) drought intensity tation proportion of drought frequency |
| 基金项目:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(IDM2021005,IDM2021001)；中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J044-03)；国家自然科学基金面上项目(41875023)；昌吉州科技项目 (2020S03) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于昌吉地区7个气象站1961－2020年降水量资料，计算昌吉地区作物生长季标准化降水指数（SPI-7）。运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法和小波分析法探究了昌吉地区作物生长季SPI-7指数的年际和年代变化特征；在此基础上分析了作物生长季干旱的站次比和干旱强度的年际变化,并结合该区实际发生的旱灾对SPI进行了验证。结果表明：1961—2020年昌吉地区作物生长季标准化降水指数以0.08/10 a的速率呈微弱的正趋势（变湿），在年代变化趋势中呈现出变干-变湿-变干的变化波动, 1981年标准化降水指数由低到高突变；干旱强度呈增加趋势，干旱发生的区域面积有轻微减少的趋势；干旱强度在全区范围内主要为轻旱和中旱等级，并表现为全域性干旱和区域性干旱；空间分布上看干旱率最高区域在东部地区，轻旱主要集中在东部，中旱、重旱和特旱集中在西部地区，干旱强度大的区域大致分布在西部地区；在周期性变化方面，SPI指数存在着6年、9年、16年周期震荡；历史旱灾与SPI指数干旱评价结果吻合率较高，SPI指数在昌吉地区作物生长季的干旱监测与分析中具有较好的实用性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the precipitation data of seven meteorological stations in Changji region from 1961 to 2020, the standardized precipitation index (spi-7) of crop growth season in Changji region is calculated. Using trend analysis, m-k mutation test and wavelet analysis, the interannual and decadal variation characteristics of spi-7 index in crop growth season in Changji region were explored; On this basis, the inter annual variation of the station to station ratio and drought intensity in the crop growing season are analyzed, and the SPI is verified in combination with the actual drought in this area. The results showed that the standardized precipitation index of crop growing season in Changji region showed a weak positive trend (getting wet) at the rate of 0.08/10 a from 1961 to 2020, showing a change fluctuation of getting dry, getting wet and getting dry in the decadal change trend, and the standardized precipitation index suddenly changed from low to high in 1981; The intensity of drought showed an increasing trend, and the area of drought occurrence had a slight decreasing trend; The drought intensity in the whole region is mainly light drought and medium drought, and is manifested as global drought and regional drought; In terms of spatial distribution, the highest drought rate is in the eastern region, light drought is mainly concentrated in the eastern region, medium drought, heavy drought and extreme drought are concentrated in the western region, and regions with high drought intensity are roughly distributed in the western region; In terms of cyclical changes, SPI index has 6-year, 9-year and 16 year periodic fluctuations; The coincidence rate between the Historical Drought and the drought evaluation results of SPI index is high. SPI index has good practicability in the drought monitoring and analysis of crop growth season in Changji area. |
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