| 努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜,姚俊强,阿依努尔·买买提吐逊,米日古丽·米吉提,黄 艳.1961—2021年塔里木盆地极端降水指数时空变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2024,18(5):25~34 |
| 1961—2021年塔里木盆地极端降水指数时空变化特征 |
| Spatial and Temporal VariationCharacteristics of Extreme Precipitation Indexes in the Tarim Basin from 1961 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2021-03-07 修订日期：2024-04-02 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 塔里木盆地 极端降水 极端降水指数 时空变化 |
| 英文关键词:Tarim Basin, extreme precipitation extreme precipitation index spatial and temporal variation |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金重点项目（2022D01D86) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于1961—2021年塔里木盆地39个气象站逐日降水资料，选取世界气象组织(WMO)推荐的10个极端降水指数，采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变分析、累积距平、滑动t检验、信噪比检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，分析塔里木盆地极端降水指数的时空变化特征。结果表明：近61 a塔里木盆地强降水量、极强降水量、1日最大降水量、5日最大降水量、中雨日数、大雨日数、持续湿期分布总体呈自西北山脉向盆地中东部减少的空间格局；暴雨日数指数局地性强，50 mm以上极端暴雨主要出现在盆地中东部平原站。近61 a塔里木盆地极端降水事件呈现明显的“极端”和“湿润”化趋势，其中强降水量、极强降水量、降水强度、1日最大降水量、中雨日数、大雨日数及持续干期指数，大部站呈现不同程度的上升趋势，持续湿期呈下降趋势；空间上极端降水指数存在“西快东慢”的区域差异，盆地西部极端降水指数变化速率大于东部。极端降水指数存在明显的年际波动和年代振荡特征，各极端降水指数年代距平在20世纪80—90年代均经历“少—多”的变化（持续干期相反），之后振荡增加表现出一定的不稳定性。突变和周期特征显示，盆地极端降水事件在20世纪80年代中期经历了一次较明显的转折性变化，除暴雨日数外其余指数均发生了显著突变；同时20世纪80年代中后期各极端降水指数出现较明显的周期变化，除5日最大降水量、持续湿期指数外，其余指数均存在较稳定的准3 a、6 a左右高频振荡周期。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the daily precipitation data from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim Basin in China from 1961 to 2021 and 10 extreme precipitation indexes recommended by the World Meteorological Organization, we investigate their variation characteristics by using some statistical methods, including linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall test, accumulative anomaly, sliding t-test, signal-to-noise ratio test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that the heavy precipitation, extreme precipitation, maximum 1-day precipitation amount, maximum 5-day precipitation amount,?moderate rain days, heavy rain days and consecutive wet days,?all decrease from the northwestern mountainous areas to the central-eastern basin. The heavy precipitation days is highly localized, and the extreme heavy preciptiation over 50 mm are mainly concentrated at the plain stations in the central-eastern parts of the basin. Over the past 61 years, extreme precipitation events in the Tarim Basin have shown an obvious "extreme" and "humidification" trend. The indexes such as heavy precipitation, extreme precipitation, precipitation intensity, maximum 1-day precipitation amount, moderate rain days, heavy rain days and consecutive dry days, have demonstrated varying degrees of increase at most stations, while the consecutive wet days has shown a decreasing trend. There are some regional differences in the variation rate of extreme precipitation indexes, with a “fast in the west and slow in the east” pattern. The extreme precipitation indexes exhibit obvious interannual fluctuations and interdecadal oscillations. The interannual anomalies of each extreme precipitation indexes experienc a "from less to more" variation from the 1980s to the 1990s (they are the oppositein the consecutive dry period). After that, the oscillation has increased and shows a certain degree of unstability. In terms of mutation and periodic characteristics, the extreme precipitation events in the basin experienc an obvious turning point in the mid-1980s, with notable mutation observed in all indexes except for heavy precipitation days. During the middle-to-late 1980s, extreme precipitation indexes display distinct cyclical variations. Except for the 5-day maximum precipitation and the consecutive wet days, the other indexes show relatively stable quasi-3-year or quasi-6-year high-frequency oscillations. |
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